Iran may try to buy time for its scientists to assemble a rudimentary nuclear device that could be mounted on a missile. If successful, this could grant the Islamic Republic de facto status as a nuclear power—not a first-tier one, but one powerful enough to deter both Israel and the United States.
Donald Trump responds to the ceasefire violation
As a result, Israel must now ramp up intelligence-gathering efforts in close coordination with the U.S. to determine whether the war’s stated goals were achieved. That includes assessing the damage to Iran’s nuclear weapons project—especially its enrichment facilities—and verifying how much high-level enriched uranium Iran still has and whether any of it remains hidden, potentially enabling a swift nuclear breakout.
Another key focus is Iran’s remaining missile capabilities. While Tehran launched ballistic missiles during the war, its cruise missile and drone arsenals were barely used. It's possible Iran still retains significant offensive capacity in these areas, posing a continuing threat to Israel.
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Ali Khamenei, Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump
(Photo: Reuters/ GPO/ Evelyn Hockstein, Iranian Leader's Press Office, Getty Images, IDF)
A third major task will be tracking whether Iran is willing to reengage quickly in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., and how flexible it is regarding American demands. The issue is not only whether Tehran will agree to halt uranium enrichment on its own soil, but also whether it’s willing to limit its missile program. The pace and nature of those negotiations—and particularly whether Iran allows strict, intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency—will help determine whether the war met its strategic objectives. If Iran refuses to compromise on both nuclear and missile issues and blocks effective oversight, Israel may have to reconsider its course of action.
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Both damage assessments and negotiations over a new nuclear deal could take several months, possibly up to half a year. If, by then, results are unsatisfactory from Israel’s perspective, or if Iran drags its feet, another military confrontation may be necessary—ideally coordinated with Washington. Either way, Israel must already begin preparing for that possibility. That includes closing the significant gaps in the country’s civil defense infrastructure, particularly in fortified shelters and safe rooms. Without such protection, no government could ethically justify entering another conflict from a position of strength.
Another urgent priority is ending the war in Gaza and securing the return of the hostages. Failing to bring them home would severely damage Israel’s national resilience.
‘Prefer surrendering to the great Satan’
Earlier today, we wrote that Iran’s leadership appeared to have chosen de-escalation, effectively bringing about the cease-fire. While not all details of the behind-the-scenes talks or the exact timeline are yet known, it seems Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials signaled their desire—or even request—for a "dignified" cease-fire once they opted for a weak, pre-coordinated response to the U.S. strike.
This may not have been a traditional white-flag surrender, but Iran’s move to let Washington and its Gulf neighbors know it sought to avoid escalation was a capitulation in all but name.
It’s likely that the American strike accelerated the end of the war, not only because Iran feared more powerful attacks, but because surrendering to U.S. military pressure is considered more “honorable” than backing down in the face of Israeli strikes. In the eyes of the Iranian regime, conceding to the “Great Satan”—the world’s most powerful superpower—does less damage to its image and internal stability than appearing to fold before the “Little Satan,” Israel.